Eliminating the Bias

Today I took steps to remove the bias I wrote about in my last posting - "An Opening Bias". This involved depositing more of my "test bank" funds to enable me to open a trade with either a bet or a lay without having to dramatically reduce stakes. Before starting the blog I allocated a total trading bank fund of £1250 (about $2250 Canadian), made up of the main bank (£1000) which would be used if I decided to go ahead after initial trials, and £250, which would be used for "test" banks during that initial trials period. So basically I am willing to risk up to 20% of the funds I have set aside to help make a decision on whether or not I believe investing the remaining 80% will likely result in long term profits.

Today I stumbled a little after making the deposit that finally cleared me of that "open with a bet" bias, but then things started to click a little and I made a profit in the last 8 races I traded. Those races included the 17:15 at Newcastle where I was tracking Speed Dating. It had been on an outward slide when suddenly a huge bet came in which swept up everything all the way from 6.2 to 5.3 and the remaining money (around $2500) sat there at 5.3 with nothing between that and 6.0. It was a clear signal to lay at 5.2, which I did to my usual $40 stake. It took quite a while, but eventually the $2500 was eaten away and the price then took off. It hesitated a little at 6.0, so I got a bit nervous and closed out at 5.9. In less than 30 seconds 6.4 was easily available. No matter, it was still a nice trade to call correctly, even if I didn't extract the maximum benefit.